Spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype G epidemic in West and Central Africa

Abstract

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in West Africa, accounting for nearly 30% of infections in the region. There is no information about the spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of this HIV-1 clade in Africa. To this end, we analyzed a total of 305 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences isolated from 11 different countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 20 years (1992 to 2011). Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescentbased method. Our analyses indicate that subtype G most probably emerged in Central Africa in 1968 (1956-1976). From Central Africa, the virus was disseminated to West and West Central Africa at multiple times from the middle 1970s onwards. Two subtype G strains probably introduced into Nigeria and Togo between the middle and the late 1970s were disseminated locally and to neighboring countries, leading to the origin of two major western African clades (G_WA-I and G_WA-II). Subtype G clades circulating in western and central African regions displayed an initial phase of exponential growth followed by a decline in growth rate since the early/middle 1990s; but the mean epidemic growth rate of G_WA-I (0.75 year^-1) and G_WA-II (0.95 year^-1) clades was about two times higher than that estimated for central African lineages (0.47 year^-1). Notably, the overall evolutionary and demographic history of G_WA-I and G_WA-II clades was very similar to that estimated for the CRF06-cpx clade circulating in the same region. These results support the notion that the spatiotemporal dissemination dynamics of major HIV-1 clades circulating in western Africa have probably been shaped by the same ecological factors.

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